Recent Blog Entries
-
May 14th, 2012
In the Know May 13th (AAPL, TCBI, QCOR,RGR, ALLT, WPI, VRX)
Market Condition: Correction continues NASDAQ attempts to find support at 2900 ↓ This Issue looks at: Brief Market outlook, some contrarian indicators, and watch list screens General Market Outlook: Markets fell for another week. This last week NASDAQ slipped 0.8% and the S&P 500 fell 1.1%. A few leading stocks were hit after earnings, while others were finding support and staging upside reversals. French Elections and other European crisis issues continued, and early in the week it looked like this news would devastate US markets, however on several days the markets were able to close in the upper daily ranges. More bad news towards the end of the week came from JP Morgan Chase’s $2 billion dollar trading losses which weighed heavy on the markets. For now the NASDAQ market appears to be finding support at the 2900 level and the S&P 500 at 1340-1350 level, a breach of these levels may indicate further downside for the markets. The markets may have found support at the above mentioned levels but we would need to see some confirmation of this sometime this week, until then extreme caution is advised going forward. Continued…
-
May 7th, 2012
In the Know Week of May 6th (NASDAQ)
Market Condition: Point of least resistance is to the downside. ↓ This Issue looks at: Brief Market outlook General Market Outlook: The prior week’s (week of April 22) rally attempt turned into a pretty ugly reversal this past week (week of April 29). The NASDAQ tumbled 3.7% as volume picked up towards the end of the week and the S&P 500 fell 2.4%. Regardless for the reason for the sell-off whether, European issues or slower job growth in the United States the selling was pretty intense. Many leading stocks were hit hard, a few leaders managed to stay near their highs. Earnings from US corporations continued to fair pretty well, and estimate revisions for companies yet to report rose to 7.8%. Despite this the marked got spooked and sold off. At this point extreme caution in the market is warranted. The rally attempt from the previous week failed, and the point of least resistance is to the downside for now. As earnings continue this week, we should get a clearer picture if this is a start of another downtrend or if this was the biggest shake-out of all! Continued…
-
April 30th, 2012
In the Know Week of 4/29/2012 (FRAN)
Market Condition: Cautious uptrend, marginal follow-through on rally attempt. ↑ General Market Outlook: Last week (week of April 22) the market staged what may be the start of a new rally. On Wednesday the S&P 500 staged a moderate follow-through day. For the week the S&P 500 rose 1.8% the NASDAQ rallied 2.3%. Earlier in the week volume was mild on the down days, but midweek volume picked up dramatically on the up days. These were welcome changes which we have not seen over the last few weeks. Earnings season is continuing, the market is rewarding companies with good earnings and guidance, however, the market is punishing companies who report slightly out of line, so not a super bullish scenario. Big gap ups were seen in stocks like AAPL, GNC, and SWI, big volume bounces were seen in leaders like VMW, QCOR, AZO, DG, AAP, ORLY, and others. Other encouraging signs were that the market was able to shrug off dire European economic news, a soft GDP number and rising unemployment claims in the U.S. (Please see the section titled “What Really Matters in the Market” below). While it is uncertain if the rally will stick, we believe the signs to be encouraging enough to mildly test the market with new positions. Continued…
-
April 16th, 2012
In the Know Week of April 15th – General Market Overview
Market Condition: Market in Correction, selling intensifies, masked by low volume rallies ↓ This Issue looks at: General market comment General Market Outlook: The Market got hit this week with the NASDAQ falling 2.2% and the S&P 500 dropping 2%. A few leading stocks continued to buck the trend and make new highs while the general indexes were getting hit. Earnings season started last week with mixed results. Earnings continue this week, and may set the tone for the market going forward, with some notable stocks such as IBM, CMG, URI, QCOM, UA, VMW, MCD ,YUM and many others reporting. For now caution is in play and watch to see how the market reacts to the earnings numbers and forward guidance given by the companies reporting. Continued…
-
April 9th, 2012
In the Know Week of April 8, 2012
Market Condition: Market in Correction, selling accelerates This Issue looks at: General market comment General Market Outlook: This week the distribution day count in the general indexes continued to climb, thus putting the market in correction. Despite this, some leading stocks continue to act well, so we have an interesting divergence at this time. It appears the general market “knew” we were in for a poor employment report on Friday. This week may be rocky based on Friday’s employment report which disappointed adding only 120,000 jobs in March. The NASDAQ slid 0.4%, the S&P 500 slid 0.7% and the DOW fell 1.1%. For now caution is the name of the game, any new buys are off the table until the correction ends. Continued…
